Public ledger
Track Record
Season-to-date backtest, flat 1 unit at -110 across all markets. We publish ROI, hit rate, and Brier score per market — the markets that aren't profitable yet stay visible here even when they get gated off the daily card.
Published Picks
Every play that's actually shipped on the daily card, graded after game completion. Real-money simulation at the prices we took. CLV captured at first pitch.
Mean CLV (full history): -0.502% over 14 snapped picks
30-day rolling
Picks
40(33 graded)
Hit rate
51.5%
Units P&L
+0.67u
ROI
+1.68%
Mean CLV (14 snapped)
-0.502%
Full history
Picks
40(33 graded)
Hit rate
51.5%
Units P&L
+0.67u
ROI
+1.68%
Mean CLV (14 snapped)
-0.502%
Recently resolved
| Date | Matchup | Pick | CLV | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | CIN@CHC | UNDER 11.5 | — | LOSS | -1.00u |
| 2026-05-04 | CWS@LAA | OVER 7.5 | +0.00% | LOSS | -1.00u |
| 2026-05-04 | CIN@CHC | CIN | — | WIN | +0.96u |
| 2026-05-04 | BAL@NYY | OVER 8.5 | +0.26% | WIN | +0.96u |
| 2026-05-04 | PHI@MIA | UNDER 8.5 | +0.00% | LOSS | -1.00u |
| 2026-05-04 | CIN@CHC | UNDER 11.0 | — | LOSS | -1.00u |
| 2026-05-03 | MIL@WSH | OVER 8.5 | — | LOSS | -1.00u |
| 2026-05-03 | TOR@MIN | OVER 7.0 | — | WIN | +0.91u |
| 2026-05-03 | ATL@COL | OVER 9.5 | — | WIN | +0.85u |
| 2026-05-03 | LAD@STL | STL | — | WIN | +0.77u |
| 2026-05-03 | CWS@SD | CWS | — | WIN | +0.78u |
| 2026-05-03 | TEX@DET | UNDER 8.5 | +0.59% | WIN | +0.85u |
| 2026-05-03 | CIN@PIT | OVER 7.5 | — | WIN | +1.00u |
| 2026-05-03 | ATL@COL | OVER 10.0 | — | PUSH | +0.00u |
| 2026-05-03 | CLE@ATH | UNDER 9.0 | -1.78% | LOSS | -1.00u |
| 2026-05-03 | PHI@MIA | UNDER 8.5 | -3.73% | WIN | +0.87u |
| 2026-05-03 | LAD@STL | UNDER 9.5 | — | WIN | +0.94u |
| 2026-05-03 | BAL@NYY | BAL | — | LOSS | -1.00u |
| 2026-05-03 | AZ@CHC | UNDER 11.5 | -2.74% | WIN | +0.95u |
| 2026-05-02 | SF@TB | SF | -1.34% | LOSS | -1.00u |
Calibration check
A 70% pick should win 70% of the time. The chart below bins our published picks by predicted probability and shows the actual hit rate. Dots near the diagonal mean the model's confidence numbers are honest.
Calibration: predicted vs. actual
33 graded picks
Each dot is a probability bucket. The diagonal is perfect calibration — a 70% pick wins 70% of the time. Above the line: we're under-confident; below: over-confident. Larger dots = more samples.
| Bucket | Picks (graded) | Predicted avg | Actual rate | Drift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <55% | 4 (4) | 47.1% | 75.0% | +27.9 pts |
| 55-60% | 15 (15) | 57.4% | 40.0% | -17.4 pts |
| 60-65% | 8 (8) | 61.2% | 75.0% | +13.8 pts |
| 65-70% | 5 (5) | 67.3% | 20.0% | -47.3 pts |
| 70-75% | 1 (1) | 70.8% | 100.0% | +29.2 pts |
| 75-80% | — (0) | — | — | — |
| >80% | — (0) | — | — | — |
Drift = (actual − predicted). Positive = model under-predicted; negative = over-predicted. Buckets with zero graded picks show their total count in parens.
Backtest (season-to-date, every game-line at flat -110)
Independent of what we publish. Grades every line we could have played as a calibration check on the model itself. The market gate uses these numbers to decide what's eligible for the daily card.
Backtest bets
120,896
Hit rate
54.9%
Units P&L
+5634.74u
ROI
+4.66%
By market
| Market | Bets | Hit % | Units | ROI | Brier | Gate |
|---|
A market clears the gate when it shows ≥+1% ROI AND Brier < 0.246 over its rolling 200+ bet backtest. Failing the gate doesn't hide the market — it just keeps it off the daily card while we work on it.
Daily P&L (most recent first)
| Date | Daily units | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-20 | -2.73u | -2.73u |
| 2022-03-21 | +0.81u | -1.92u |
| 2022-03-22 | +4.54u | +2.62u |
| 2022-03-23 | +20.81u | +23.43u |
| 2022-03-24 | +13.72u | +37.15u |
| 2022-03-25 | +29.54u | +66.69u |
| 2022-03-26 | +35.17u | +101.86u |
| 2022-03-27 | +19.45u | +121.31u |
| 2022-03-28 | +8.45u | +129.75u |
| 2022-03-29 | +1.63u | +131.38u |
| 2022-03-30 | +19.81u | +151.19u |
| 2022-03-31 | -12.64u | +138.55u |
| 2022-04-01 | -6.46u | +132.09u |
| 2022-04-02 | -3.37u | +128.72u |
| 2022-04-03 | +36.08u | +164.80u |
| 2022-04-04 | +3.99u | +168.80u |
| 2022-04-05 | +1.17u | +169.97u |
| 2022-04-06 | +0.45u | +170.42u |
| 2022-04-07 | -13.82u | +156.60u |
| 2022-04-08 | +18.99u | +175.60u |
| 2022-04-09 | -42.55u | +133.04u |
| 2022-04-10 | +12.72u | +145.76u |
| 2022-04-11 | +0.36u | +146.12u |
| 2022-04-12 | +3.26u | +149.39u |
| 2022-04-13 | -5.01u | +144.38u |
| 2022-04-14 | -15.91u | +128.47u |
| 2022-04-15 | -0.74u | +127.73u |
| 2022-04-16 | -3.46u | +124.27u |
| 2022-04-17 | +2.81u | +127.08u |
| 2022-04-18 | -6.73u | +120.35u |