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"opponent": "ATL", "side": "AWAY", "runs": 1, "result_3.5": "UNDER", "result_4.5": "UNDER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "ATL", "opponent": "PIT", "side": "HOME", "runs": 8, "result_3.5": "OVER", "result_4.5": "OVER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "MIA", "opponent": "HOU", "side": "AWAY", "runs": 7, "result_3.5": "OVER", "result_4.5": "OVER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "HOU", "opponent": "MIA", "side": "HOME", "runs": 4, "result_3.5": "OVER", "result_4.5": "UNDER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "BAL", "opponent": "NYY", "side": "AWAY", "runs": 1, "result_3.5": "UNDER", "result_4.5": "UNDER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "NYY", "opponent": "BAL", "side": "HOME", "runs": 3, "result_3.5": "UNDER", "result_4.5": "UNDER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "MIA", "side": "AWAY", "runs": 2, "result_3.5": "UNDER", "result_4.5": "UNDER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "MIA", "opponent": "WSH", "side": "HOME", "runs": 3, "result_3.5": "UNDER", "result_4.5": "UNDER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "KC", "opponent": "SF", "side": "AWAY", "runs": 2, "result_3.5": "UNDER", "result_4.5": "UNDER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "SF", "opponent": "KC", "side": "HOME", "runs": 5, "result_3.5": "OVER", "result_4.5": "OVER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "CIN", "opponent": "CHC", "side": "AWAY", "runs": 8, "result_3.5": "OVER", "result_4.5": "OVER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "CHC", "opponent": "CIN", "side": "HOME", "runs": 6, "result_3.5": "OVER", "result_4.5": "OVER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "SD", "opponent": "LAD", "side": "AWAY", "runs": 3, "result_3.5": "UNDER", "result_4.5": "UNDER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "LAD", "opponent": "SD", "side": "HOME", "runs": 4, "result_3.5": "OVER", "result_4.5": "UNDER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "CLE", "side": "AWAY", "runs": 20, "result_3.5": "OVER", "result_4.5": "OVER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "CLE", "opponent": "SEA", "side": "HOME", "runs": 8, "result_3.5": "OVER", "result_4.5": "OVER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "SF", "opponent": "TEX", "side": "AWAY", "runs": 5, "result_3.5": "OVER", "result_4.5": "OVER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "TEX", "opponent": "SF", "side": "HOME", "runs": 6, "result_3.5": "OVER", "result_4.5": "OVER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "CHC", "opponent": "ATH", "side": "AWAY", "runs": 2, "result_3.5": "UNDER", "result_4.5": "UNDER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "ATH", "opponent": "CHC", "side": "HOME", "runs": 6, "result_3.5": "OVER", "result_4.5": "OVER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "COL", "opponent": "SD", "side": "AWAY", "runs": 9, "result_3.5": "OVER", "result_4.5": "OVER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "SD", "opponent": "COL", "side": "HOME", "runs": 3, "result_3.5": "UNDER", "result_4.5": "UNDER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "MIL", "opponent": "AZ", "side": "AWAY", "runs": 7, "result_3.5": "OVER", "result_4.5": "OVER" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "team": "AZ", "opponent": "MIL", "side": "HOME", "runs": 8, "result_3.5": "OVER", "result_4.5": "OVER" } ] }, "todays_card": { "title": "Today's Card", "projection_section_title": "PLAYS \u2014 edge per-market (top 10) \u2014 10 of 22 priced picks \u00b7 4 portfolio-scaled", "backfill_section_title": "FADE / SKIP \u2014 leans below threshold (3) \u00b7 negative-EV (9) \u00b7 no-market (2) \u00b7 markets IN: run_line, totals \u00b7 OUT: first_5(ROI +0.33%), first_inning(ROI -3.36%), moneyline(Brier 0.2476), team_totals(Brier 0.2507)", "projection_columns": [ "date", "matchup", "starting_pitchers", "bet_type", "pick", "model_prob", "fair_odds_dec", "market_odds_dec", "market_odds_american", "book", "edge_pct", "kelly_pct", "kelly_advice", "portfolio_scaled_from" ], "backfill_columns": [ "date", "matchup", "starting_pitchers", "bet_type", "pick", "model_prob", "market_odds_dec", "edge_pct", "kelly_pct" ], "projections": [ { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "CIN@CHC", "starting_pitchers": "A: Chase Petty \u00b7 H: Edward Cabrera", "bet_type": "totals", "pick": "UNDER 11.5", "model_prob": 0.65, "fair_odds_dec": 1.538, "market_odds_dec": 1.93, "market_odds_american": -108, "book": "lowvig", "edge_pct": 13.2, "kelly_pct": 3.0, "kelly_advice": "1u", "portfolio_scaled_from": 5.0, "portfolio_total_pct": 10.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "MIL@STL", "starting_pitchers": "A: Chad Patrick \u00b7 H: Kyle Leahy", "bet_type": "totals", "pick": "OVER 8.5", "model_prob": 0.614, "fair_odds_dec": 1.629, "market_odds_dec": 1.88, "market_odds_american": -114, "book": "betrivers", "edge_pct": 8.18, "kelly_pct": 5.0, "kelly_advice": "2u" }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "PHI@MIA", "starting_pitchers": "A: Aaron Nola \u00b7 H: Janson Junk", "bet_type": "totals", "pick": "UNDER 8.5", "model_prob": 0.592, "fair_odds_dec": 1.69, "market_odds_dec": 1.95, "market_odds_american": -105, "book": "fanduel", "edge_pct": 7.87, "kelly_pct": 5.0, "kelly_advice": "2u" }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "BAL@NYY", "starting_pitchers": "A: Shane Baz \u00b7 H: Cam Schlittler", "bet_type": "totals", "pick": "OVER 8.5", "model_prob": 0.589, "fair_odds_dec": 1.697, "market_odds_dec": 1.95, "market_odds_american": -105, "book": "fanatics", "edge_pct": 7.63, "kelly_pct": 5.0, "kelly_advice": "2u" }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "SD@SF", "starting_pitchers": "A: Randy V\u00e1squez \u00b7 H: Trevor McDonald", "bet_type": "totals", "pick": "UNDER 8.0", "model_prob": 0.574, "fair_odds_dec": 1.743, "market_odds_dec": 1.96, "market_odds_american": -104, "book": "lowvig", "edge_pct": 6.37, "kelly_pct": 3.29, "kelly_advice": "2u", "portfolio_scaled_from": 5.0, "portfolio_total_pct": 9.12 }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "LAD@HOU", "starting_pitchers": "A: Yoshinobu Yamamoto \u00b7 H: Steven Okert", "bet_type": "run_line", "pick": "HOU", "model_prob": 0.541, "fair_odds_dec": 1.848, "market_odds_dec": 2.08, "market_odds_american": 108, "book": "lowvig", "edge_pct": 6.02, "kelly_pct": 5.0, "kelly_advice": "2u" }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "CIN@CHC", "starting_pitchers": "A: Chase Petty \u00b7 H: Edward Cabrera", "bet_type": "run_line", "pick": "CIN", "model_prob": 0.557, "fair_odds_dec": 1.795, "market_odds_dec": 1.98, "market_odds_american": -102, "book": "lowvig", "edge_pct": 5.19, "kelly_pct": 3.0, "kelly_advice": "1u", "portfolio_scaled_from": 5.0, "portfolio_total_pct": 10.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "CWS@LAA", "starting_pitchers": "A: Davis Martin \u00b7 H: Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "bet_type": "totals", "pick": "OVER 7.5", "model_prob": 0.569, "fair_odds_dec": 1.758, "market_odds_dec": 1.88, "market_odds_american": -114, "book": "betrivers", "edge_pct": 3.71, "kelly_pct": 3.96, "kelly_advice": "2u" }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "SD@SF", "starting_pitchers": "A: Randy V\u00e1squez \u00b7 H: Trevor McDonald", "bet_type": "run_line", "pick": "SF", "model_prob": 0.619, "fair_odds_dec": 1.616, "market_odds_dec": 1.71, "market_odds_american": -141, "book": "fanatics", "edge_pct": 3.42, "kelly_pct": 2.71, "kelly_advice": "1u", "portfolio_scaled_from": 4.12, "portfolio_total_pct": 9.12 }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "NYM@COL", "starting_pitchers": "A: Huascar Brazob\u00e1n \u00b7 H: Tomoyuki Sugano", "bet_type": "run_line", "pick": "COL", "model_prob": 0.597, "fair_odds_dec": 1.675, "market_odds_dec": 1.77, "market_odds_american": -130, "book": "fanduel", "edge_pct": 3.2, "kelly_pct": 3.68, "kelly_advice": "2u" } ], "backfill": [ { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "BOS@DET", "starting_pitchers": "A: Payton Tolle \u00b7 H: Tyler Holton", "bet_type": "run_line", "pick": "DET", "model_prob": 0.631, "fair_odds_dec": 1.585, "market_odds_dec": 1.61, "market_odds_american": -164, "book": "draftkings", "edge_pct": 0.99, "kelly_pct": 1.3, "kelly_advice": "0.5u" }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "NYM@COL", "starting_pitchers": "A: Huascar Brazob\u00e1n \u00b7 H: Tomoyuki Sugano", "bet_type": "totals", "pick": "UNDER 10.5", "model_prob": 0.503, "fair_odds_dec": 1.99, "market_odds_dec": 2.03, "market_odds_american": 103, "book": "lowvig", "edge_pct": 0.99, "kelly_pct": 0.98, "kelly_advice": "0.5u" }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "ATL@SEA", "starting_pitchers": "A: JR Ritchie \u00b7 H: Logan Gilbert", "bet_type": "totals", "pick": "OVER 7.5", "model_prob": 0.537, "fair_odds_dec": 1.861, "market_odds_dec": 1.87, "market_odds_american": -115, "book": "lowvig", "edge_pct": 0.26, "kelly_pct": 0.28, "kelly_advice": "PASS" }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "BAL@NYY", "starting_pitchers": "A: Shane Baz \u00b7 H: Cam Schlittler", "bet_type": "run_line", "pick": "BAL", "model_prob": 0.507, "fair_odds_dec": 1.972, "market_odds_dec": 1.95, "market_odds_american": -105, "book": "williamhill_us", "edge_pct": -0.58, "kelly_pct": 0.0, "kelly_advice": "PASS" }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "CLE@KC", "starting_pitchers": "A: Tanner Bibee \u00b7 H: Michael Wacha", "bet_type": "totals", "pick": "OVER 9.0", "model_prob": 0.51, "fair_odds_dec": 1.96, "market_odds_dec": 1.91, "market_odds_american": -110, "book": "williamhill_us", "edge_pct": -1.33, "kelly_pct": 0.0, "kelly_advice": "PASS" }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "CLE@KC", "starting_pitchers": "A: Tanner Bibee \u00b7 H: Michael Wacha", "bet_type": "run_line", "pick": "KC", "model_prob": 0.631, "fair_odds_dec": 1.585, "market_odds_dec": 1.53, "market_odds_american": -189, "book": "fanatics", "edge_pct": -2.26, "kelly_pct": 0.0, "kelly_advice": "PASS" }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "TOR@TB", "starting_pitchers": "A: Eric Lauer \u00b7 H: Nick Martinez", "bet_type": "run_line", "pick": "TOR", "model_prob": 0.62, "fair_odds_dec": 1.613, "market_odds_dec": 1.53, "market_odds_american": -189, "book": "betonlineag", "edge_pct": -3.36, "kelly_pct": 0.0, "kelly_advice": "PASS" }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "BOS@DET", "starting_pitchers": "A: Payton Tolle \u00b7 H: Tyler Holton", "bet_type": "totals", "pick": "OVER 8.0", "model_prob": 0.485, "fair_odds_dec": 2.062, "market_odds_dec": 1.91, "market_odds_american": -110, "book": "betrivers", "edge_pct": -3.85, "kelly_pct": 0.0, "kelly_advice": "PASS" }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "MIL@STL", "starting_pitchers": "A: Chad Patrick \u00b7 H: Kyle Leahy", "bet_type": "run_line", "pick": "STL", "model_prob": 0.567, "fair_odds_dec": 1.764, "market_odds_dec": 1.64, "market_odds_american": -156, "book": "fanduel", "edge_pct": -4.28, "kelly_pct": 0.0, "kelly_advice": "PASS" }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "TOR@TB", "starting_pitchers": "A: Eric Lauer \u00b7 H: Nick Martinez", "bet_type": "totals", "pick": "OVER 8.0", "model_prob": 0.452, "fair_odds_dec": 2.212, "market_odds_dec": 1.93, "market_odds_american": -108, "book": "lowvig", "edge_pct": -6.61, "kelly_pct": 0.0, "kelly_advice": "PASS" }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "PHI@MIA", "starting_pitchers": "A: Aaron Nola \u00b7 H: Janson Junk", "bet_type": "run_line", "pick": "PHI", "model_prob": 0.61, "fair_odds_dec": 1.639, "market_odds_dec": 1.44, "market_odds_american": -227, "book": "bovada", "edge_pct": -8.44, "kelly_pct": 0.0, "kelly_advice": "PASS" }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "LAD@HOU", "starting_pitchers": "A: Yoshinobu Yamamoto \u00b7 H: Steven Okert", "bet_type": "totals", "pick": "OVER 9.0", "model_prob": 0.418, "fair_odds_dec": 2.391, "market_odds_dec": 1.93, "market_odds_american": -108, "book": "betrivers", "edge_pct": -10.0, "kelly_pct": 0.0, "kelly_advice": "PASS" }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "CWS@LAA", "starting_pitchers": "A: Davis Martin \u00b7 H: Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "bet_type": "run_line", "pick": "LAA", "model_prob": 0.591, "fair_odds_dec": 1.692, "market_odds_dec": null, "market_odds_american": null, "book": null, "edge_pct": null, "kelly_pct": 5.0, "kelly_advice": "2u" }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "matchup": "ATL@SEA", "starting_pitchers": "A: JR Ritchie \u00b7 H: Logan Gilbert", "bet_type": "run_line", "pick": "SEA", "model_prob": 0.617, "fair_odds_dec": 1.621, "market_odds_dec": null, "market_odds_american": null, "book": null, "edge_pct": null, "kelly_pct": 5.0, "kelly_advice": "2u" } ] }, "backtest": { "title": "Backtest", "projection_section_title": "BACKTEST SUMMARY \u2014 2022-03-20 \u2192 2026-05-03 \u00b7 CLV tracked: 10 of 40 logged picks", "backfill_section_title": "DAILY P&L (cumulative units, flat 1u @ -110)", "projection_columns": [ "scope", "bet_type", "bets", "wins", "losses", "pushes", "hit_rate", "units_pl", "roi_pct", "brier" ], "backfill_columns": [ "date", "daily_units", "cumulative_units" ], "projections": [ { "scope": "OVERALL", "bet_type": "all", "bets": 120896, "wins": 64816, "losses": 53283, "pushes": 2797, "hit_rate": 54.9, "units_pl": 5634.74, "roi_pct": 4.66, "brier": 0.2478 }, { "scope": "BY TYPE", "bet_type": "first_5", "bets": 10986, "wins": 4871, "losses": 4391, "pushes": 1724, "hit_rate": 52.6, "units_pl": 36.74, "roi_pct": 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